Step 2 · The cost
Ireland pays to throw clean energy away
What curtailment actually is
Curtailment vs constraint
Both are “dispatch-down.” Curtailment is system-wide: there is simply too much renewable generation for the whole island to use safely at once (the SNSP limit caps how much non-synchronous generation the grid can carry). Constraint is local: the wires in a particular area can't carry the power to where it's needed.
Why it costs money
Minimum-generation rules keep a floor of conventional (gas) plants running for stability, so wind is dialled back first. Some dispatched-down generators are paid compensation, and the lost clean output has to be replaced by burning gas — pushing wholesale prices and emissions up. The bill lands on consumers.
It gets worse as we build more wind
What it costs billpayers
Headline cost is modelled as the compensation / constraint payments made to generators — not a naïve “volume × price.” Curtailment is often uncompensated for newer generators, while constraint is generally paid, so we separate the wasted volume from the compensated cost. Full workings are on the Methodology page.
| Period | Wasted energy | Payments (€) | Cost / household | If mined (€) | Saved / household | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day | 2.9 GWh | €117.8K | €0.06 | €268.4K | €0.13 | est. |
| Week | 11.9 GWh | €491.7K | €0.23 | €1.1M | €0.53 | est. |
| Month | 54.7 GWh | €2.3M | €1.07 | €5.1M | €2.45 | est. |
| 2025 | 1.5 TWh | €47.8M | €22.77 | €141M | €67.14 | actual |
| 2024 | 1.31 TWh | €41.5M | €19.77 | €122.7M | €58.41 | actual |
| 2023 | 1.12 TWh | €35.8M | €17.06 | €105.6M | €50.31 | actual |
| 2022 | 989 GWh | €31.5M | €15.02 | €93M | €44.27 | actual |
As-is vs recovering the value
In 2025, the same wasted energy — if used by interruptible mining that switches off the instant the grid needs power — could have generated an estimated €141M of recoverable value.
Supporting context: replacement cost
Separately from the compensation figure, the clean energy lost to dispatch-down has to be replaced — usually by burning gas. Valued at a reference wholesale price of €95.00/MWh, the 1.5 TWh wasted in 2025 represents roughly €142.5M of energy that had to come from elsewhere — plus the added emissions. This is context, not added to the headline cost.
How mining makes more renewables feasible
A flexible “buyer of last resort” that only runs on otherwise-curtailed output gives wind and solar projects revenue for energy they'd otherwise waste — improving project economics and helping more renewables get built, without adding new fossil demand.
Read the proposalNot financial or investment advice. Bitcoin figures depend on volatile market prices and network conditions and are illustrative only.
If nothing changes, the bill keeps growing
Projected energy thrown away per year
A scenario, not a prediction — anchored on Ireland's published capacity targets and the 2022–2024 dispatch-down trend, with a business-as-usual grid.
Ireland's renewable capacity is set to roughly triple by 2040. That's exactly what the climate targets require — but on a business-as-usual grid, the waste grows with it. By 2046, this scenario reaches about 71.1 TWh of clean electricity thrown away every year — several times today's level, with the payments to match.
New wires, storage and interconnectors will help, but they take a decade to build. The question is what to do with the surplus in the meantime — and whether it can pay for itself.
Assumptions are adjustable
Next in the story
There's a way to turn this growing waste into value — flexible demand that buys only the energy we'd otherwise throw away, and switches off the instant the grid needs it.
The proposal →